Beyond Westminster? 2023 Edition Hineraumati

02/10/2023

For the last quarter-century, I’ve examined the hypothesis that Aotearoa’s Westminster-derived governance model is under increasing strain. The traditional pressure points remain relevant: the shift to mixed-member-proportional representation, evolving foreign policy alliances affecting parliamentary sovereignty, expanded use of associate ministers and undersecretaries, coalition dynamics challenging cabinet solidarity, inadequate regulatory scrutiny, and the growing influence of policy networks amid a politicised public service.

In assessing the current National-Act-NZFirst coalition government, some positive signs emerge. The transition of power was efficient, with coalition arrangements established within three weeks. The portfolio distribution appears balanced, with National holding 30 portfolios and ACT and NZFirst securing four cabinet positions each, including an innovative rotating deputy prime ministership. The strong emphasis on collective responsibility is particularly encouraging, although it sits beside the concerns that follow.

However, several concerning developments warrant attention:

First, the independence of public service faces unprecedented challenges. The anticipated reduction of up to 15,000 full-time positions and a failure to attract returning talent from the private and third sectors risks significant capability loss. More troublingly, public statements from coalition partners suggesting ideological alignment as a prerequisite for public service employment directly challenge fundamental Westminster principles.

Second, the erosion of policy networks presents a strategic risk. Key leaders’ departures threaten network stability at a time when networked governance is essential for effective risk management and outcome delivery. This situation is exacerbated by the government’s lack of clarity regarding its theory of government and measurable outcomes.

Third, the cabinet appears at risk of becoming overly operational, potentially undermining public service independence and ministerial accountability. The absence of a clear government role definition and collective strategy, replaced by detailed “to-do” lists, suggests a concerning shift in governance approach.

The model faces additional pressure from Te Tiriti obligations, deliberative democracy demands, and cultural pluralism. Electoral victory no longer guarantees effective governance: maintaining public trust requires working through complexity, plurality, and competing policy networks. The opposition’s unusually swift critique of the new government adds to that difficulty.

While I maintain strong green ratings for two of the five Westminster elements, the overall system shows increasing signs of strain. The coming months will determine whether this government can balance its operational focus with strategic governance needs while maintaining essential Westminster principles.

Nau mai haere mai Hine Raumati. He iti tangata e tupu, he iti toki e iti tonu.

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